kubrick97 (AKA Brian) (kubrick97) wrote,
kubrick97 (AKA Brian)

My 15th Annual Oscars Picks and Wishes, 2020 edition for the 2019 movies

Here it is, my only post I write every year. This Sunday night, The Oscars will be on. so time for me to start writing. I no longer use MoviePass or Sinemia (wondering if either end up in the In Memoriam segment at the halfway part of the show) but I did pay a lot of good money to see a lot of good movies this past year. I will not be a downer, this was a great year at the movies.

This Sunday night is when they will televise the Oscars. Once again, i did my job as a movie geek, and saw all 9 of the Best Picture nominees. Here's how it will go, i'll say an Oscar category, who's nominated, how many i saw, then, who i think SHOULD win, and who i think WILL win.

Of the 24 different Oscar categories, i only deal with the serious 8 categories (4 acting, 2 writing, best director, best picture). But i'll also throw in a couple guesses for fun. I always keep the best picture pick and wish for the very end. So, lets knock this out.

Lead Actor:

Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

Did not see either "Pain and Glory" or "The Two Popes"

Should Win--Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win--Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

I am not say Joaquin Phoenix is a bad actor. He really is amazing in Joker, and he also lost 52 pounds for that role. I just think in the future, Leo should have an extra Oscar or two, and it should be for roles like this. But he won an Oscar a few years ago when he got raped by that bear in a movie that no one has ever watched for a second time. So, let's give it to Joker because he doesn't have an Oscar yet, and also he has won at every awards show this entire season. In fact, all 4 acting categories are locks. The same 4 people, for the same for roles, have won at all the different things. SAG, Golden Globes, BAFTAS, DGA, PGA; there will be very little suspense as they announce everyone of my Will Wins for acting.

Lead Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

Did not see "Harriet"

Should Win--Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Will Win--Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

I am telling you, Charlize Theron looked just liked Megyn Kelly. I know that is the makeup, but I never saw Theron at all, only Megyn. She was amazing in a fun movie that not that many people saw. Another movie that not that many people saw was "Judy", about the last months of Judy Garland as she struggles with divorce, a new marriage, money issues, and still trying to perform despite her addictions that will eventually kill her. Renee Zellweger did a pretty impressive job with the singing, but the movie was made to essentially win this Oscar, and not really entertain. It reminds me too much of when Natalie Portman was in that first lady movie about Jackie O. It got her a best actress nominee, but you can't find that movie played anywhere, and no one even remembers the title.

Supporting Actor:

Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Did not see "The Two Popes", but it's on Netflix, who knows, I might see it this weekend.

Should Win--Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win--Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Fuck Yeah! I will be very excited when this happens. I loved "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" so much, I saw the movie twice. The best thing about this movie are the scenes with Brad Pitt. He plays Leo's stuntman, but he's also his driver, and errand boy, and also his best friend in the movie. We get to witness all the stuff that Brad Pitt does while Leo is out making movies and tv shows. And we also see how great of a friend his is at the very end of the movie when... I don't want to spoil the movie's amazing ending. Let's just say Tarantino has this way of rewriting true history that leaves the audience shocked and amazed. Because of Tarantino, we know what it's like to see Hitler and an entire movie theater of Nazis get fucking wiped out at the end of "Inglorious Basterds". In "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" we get to see a dark night in Hollywood in 1969 play out in a very different way. Brad Pitt is so great. Let's face it, he won the Oscar the moment he went up on that roof to fix an antenna and took off his shirt. He also gets to fight Bruce Lee, pick up a hitch hiking hippie, make someone fix a flat tire, check up on the well being of an old friend, and also play with his beloved dog. Brad Pitt was amazing, and I can't wait for him to finally win his first Oscar for acting.

Supporting Actress:

Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”

Saw them all

Should Win--Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Will Win--Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”

Scarlett Johansson was nominated for two different Oscars, for two different movies, and she won't win on either. Which is a shame, she was a great mother in "Jojo Rabbit", who is dealing with her young son who wants to be a Nazi in Germany near the end of World War II. She is not in a lot of scenes, but in the few that she is in, she knocks them out of the park. But instead, because for some unknown reason, Laura Dern will win as the divorce attorney who does everything for her client because divorce is a dirty thing and men always lose at it. Ironically, Laura Dern's client in "Marriage Story" is Scarlett Johansson, so, that has to be some mixed feelings for ScarJo. I lose twice, but at least my scene partner gets to win.


Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”

Saw them all

Should Win--Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win--Sam Mendes, “1917”

It's confession time. Of the 9 movies nominated for Best Picture this year, only two films gets my highest grade of 4-stars. And they happen to be these two movies, my two favorite movies of the year. I really do want QT to finally win an Oscar as best director, because he really is an amazing director. However, Stanley Kubrick and Alfred Hitchcock never won an Oscar for Best Director. It took both Spielberg and Scorsese multiple decades of making films before they finally got their first Oscar for Best Director. And yet, Sam Mendes will win his second Best Director Oscar for "1917", this amazing World War I film, shot to make it look like one long, uncut scene, as we follow two soldiers who are told to bring news up front. The Germans are setting up a trap. If the attack happens, over a thousand soldiers will die. Bring word to the front lines to cancel the attack, and save so many lives. I have seen both 1917 and Once Upon a time in Hollywood twice in the theaters. They really are the two best movies of the year. The director's vision to bring us into those trenches and this long journey in real time is such an amazing feat of greatness. And on the other end of things, Tarantino recreated Hollywood just like it was in 1969. But to make it a more complete film, there are other characters, dialogue, and fun visual shots of western backlots for filming, and rich houses in the Hollywood hills. Great movies both, but I think Mendes wins the Oscar for directing.

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Irishman,” Steven Zaillian
“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
“Joker,” Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig
“The Two Popes,” Anthony McCarten

Did not see "The Two Popes"

Should Win--“Jojo Rabbit,” Taika Waititi
Will Win--“Little Women,” Greta Gerwig

In a way for the Academy to not look so bad for not having Greta Gerwig nominated for her directing skills, I think she ends up winning the Oscar for her screenplay of "Little Women". I had never read the book or saw any of the many, many other filmed versions of "Little Women". It's slightly better than fine for what is essentially the biggest chick flick of the year that I saw. My mom loved it, and it held my interest. However, Jojo Rabbit has a boy who wants to be a nazi so bad that he had an imaginary best friend who is Adolph Hitler, and it works. It is darkly funny, and a wonderful view of both war and extreme hatred and racism from the young kid's perspective.

“Knives Out,” Rian Johnson
“Marriage Story,” Noah Baumbach
“1917,” Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
“Parasite,” Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han

Saw them all

Should Win--“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino
Will Win--“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Quentin Tarantino

God I love this Oscar category. In fact, after best picture, this is the other best picture trophy. To take an idea that doesn't exist, you just write it all out, and put it on the screen, and we get to see that originality play out. It's art at it's finest. Even if Tarantino doesn't win, I'm actually perfectly happy if any of the other movies do win. Except Marriage Story. I wasn't that big of a fan. I'm not in the world of divorce, nor am I in the world of acting, or in the world of living in New York City or living in L.A. This movie wasn't real to me because I've never had this life. Not that I had the life of a soldier in World War I like in 1917, or a Korean family like in Parasite, but those movies entertained the hell out of me. 4 of these 5 movies are very worthy of winning this Oscar. Would love to see if it somehow goes to Knives Out, another 4-star movie from this year that made 2019 so special.

Now that I have gone through 7 of the main 8 categories, here are some locks that I think will win during the Oscars:

Cinematography--“1917,” Roger Deakins
Best International Feature Film--“Parasite,” Bong Joon Ho
Production Design--“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh
Original Song--“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” “Rocketman”
Makeup and Hair--"Bombshell"
Visual Effects--“Avengers Endgame”
Costume Design--"Little Women"

It's time for the final and biggest category of them all. Here they are in proper alphabetical order.

Best Picture:

“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”

Saw them all (that's the point, every year, see every movie nominated for Best Picture so no matter what, I will always know what is the Best Picture in my opinion)

Should Win--“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win--“1917”

Yes, I saw them all. Another fun way to list these movies is what I did earlier today on Twitter. For the first time in a long time, all the movies nominated for Best Picture, I would recommend them to someone. They all got 3 to 4 stars. In fact, here was how I broke them down:

I break them into 3 sections:

3-Star movies:
Marriage Story
Little Women
The Irishman

3 1/2 Star movies:
Ford V Ferrari
Jojo Rabbit

4-Star movies:
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

I won't go into detail with all the movies, but here's a few things. "The Irishman" was a great movie for the first 2 hours or so. Then it hit it's climax. And instead of finishing things off in about 20 minutes, the movie kept going for another hour plus. Sunk my rating by a full star.

I really enjoyed Ford V Ferrari, but this is just a year when the very good movie is there, but it doesn't win a damn thing, except maybe something in sound editing.

Joker has the most nominations, but I think it wins one award, and it will be for Best Actor. It's going to lose a lot of times before Joker gets its one trophy for the night.

Jojo Rabbit, god, what a unique movie. It's playing again in my local theaters. I really thought about seeing it again. I loved the scene where we find out about all the information the little boy has been writing about Jews in his secret book. Very funny stuff. It's a beautiful film, please, try to see it if you haven't.

OK, 1917 vs Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Both great movies. I know some voters don't want 1917 to win because it's a war movie. And I know some voters don't want Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to win because it rewrites history. When they vote for Best Picture, it's based on preferential voting, so they don't really pick the BEST movie, but the most liked movie, or the least un-liked movie. Normally I would hedge my pick. If 1917 wins director, that means Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wins for picture. Except the Producers Guild made their pick, and it was for 1917. It's such a solidly done war film. It's meant to be watched on the big screen. I think it brings home Best Picture. I really hope I'm wrong. I would love nothing more than for Quentin Tarantino to somehow win 3 Oscars tonight and a couple more for Brad Pitt and Leo.

Normally, I do a really great job at picking most of the actual winners. But Best Picture I don't do that well at. The last 6 years, one movie was a flat out favorite, and then something else won it. Currently, 1917 is the favorite (according to betting websites) to win Best Picture. If it doesn't win, I think that could mean Once Upon a Time in Hollywood sneaks in to take it. Crazy upsets could occur. With so many old white guys still voting, maybe The Irishman wins the biggest prize of the night with no other awards to be won. Some thing it might go to the foreign film Parasite. What if Ford V Ferrari happens to be that one movie that everyone has as their 2nd or 3rd favorite, and due to the voting process, that is how it wins? I'm the least confident as to what will bring home the final Oscar of the night. Tune in this Sunday night to watch and find out along with me.

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